Predictors of outcome for patients with COPD requiring invasive mechanical ventilation.

INTRODUCTION Accurate outcomes data and predictors of outcomes are fundamental to the effective care of patients with COPD and in guiding them and their families through end-of-life decisions. DESIGN We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 166 patients using prospectively gathered data in patients with COPD who required mechanical ventilation for acute respiratory failure of diverse etiologies. RESULTS The in-hospital mortality rate for the entire cohort was 28% but fell to 12% for patients with a COPD exacerbation and without a comorbid illness. Univariate analysis showed a higher mortality rate among those patients who required > 72 h of mechanical ventilation (37% vs 16%; p < 0.01), those without previous episodes of mechanical ventilation (33% vs 11%; p < 0.01), and those with a failed extubation attempt (36% vs 7%; p = 0.0001). With multiple logistical regression, higher acute physiology score measured 6 h after the onset of mechanical ventilation, presence of malignancy, presence of APACHE (acute physiology and chronic health evaluation) II-associated comorbidity, and the need for mechanical ventilation > or = 72 h were independent predictors of poor outcome. CONCLUSIONS We conclude that among variables available within the first 6 h of mechanical ventilation, the presence of comorbidity and a measure of the severity of the acute illness are predictors of in-hospital mortality among patients with COPD and acute respiratory failure. The occurrence of extubation failure or the need for mechanical ventilation beyond 72 h also portends a worse prognosis.